Thursday, November 27, 2008

Decision Making: 38 Second Rule

In our decision making, sometimes the power of the subconscious is paramount. With the subconscious activated, We can see or know the gestalt where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. Meaning that we can determine at a moment's notice or upon our first instinctive thought what we want Most of the time, thus knowing the answer fairly quickly. But what can and often does happen is this: We over analyze and fall into the "paralysis through analysis." This normally occurs because we focus too much on details, worry what other people think, or because we are insecure about our own decision making.

Over analyzing can lead us into the worst decision of all: Not Making One...

Teddy Roosevelt once said: “In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing.”

When it comes to making wise decisions, we must make sure we do not see "false positives." Meaning, "seeing things that are not there." In his amazing book, "How Doctors Think," Jerome Groopman, MD talks about "The 38 Second Rule."

Dr. E. James Potchen at Michigan State University, studied Radiologists and their decision making abilities while reading films. Potchen goes on to say, "Ironically, if you look at a film too long, you increase the risk of hurting the patient." Looking "too long" they found occurred after 38 seconds, and this is where the false positives began to show up.

Dr Groopman states the following of Dr. Potchens beliefs: "this reflects their (radiologists) level of insecurity about what they are observing. Temperament can have a significant impact on diagnostic accuracy, even among doctors like radiologists...."

In our decision making, I totally believe that the most challenging decisions need to be the most informed decisions, but we must come to the point where we believe in ourselves and understand the main idea...the gestalt. Trust Yourself, Know The Main Idea, and don't worry what other people think. Apply the 38 Second Rule to your life and see what you decide!

No comments: